While technological advances produce cleaner vehicles, more and more passengers and goods are travelling further distances, thereby offsetting efficiency gains.
Based on analysis of long-term trends, a new European Environment Agency (EEA) report calls for a clear vision defining Europe's transport system by 2050 and consistent policies to achieve it.
On its tenth anniversary, the EEA's TERM report presents an overview of transport's impact on the environment, built on an analysis of 40 policy-relevant indicators.
The report's findings for the period 1997–2007 present a mixed picture, with some improvements in air pollutants and serious concerns regarding persistent growth in transport’s greenhouse gas emissions.
“Over the last ten years we have concentrated on measures to improve mobility whilst decoupling transport emissions from economic growth,” said Professor Jacqueline McGlade, Executive Director of EEA
“Today, we can see that the extensive investment in transport infrastructure has enabled us to travel further to meet our daily needs, but has not led to a decrease in the amount of time that we are exposed to noise, congestion and air pollution.
“In the future we will need to focus not only on the mode of transport, but also the reasons why people choose to travel, because ultimately mobility is inextricably linked to our quality of life.”
Transport, including international aviation and maritime transport, accounts for around a quarter of total EU greenhouse gas emissions. Unlike some sectors, transport's impact on the environment continues to be closely linked to economic growth.
The report states: “Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector continue to grow in contrast to other sectors such as industry, housing and energy production.
“In the EEA-32, emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from transport (excluding international aviation and maritime transport) increased by 28% between 1990 and 2007 and now account for just under 19.3% of total emissions.
“Under Kyoto Protocol reporting requirements, emissions from international aviation and maritime transport (known as international bunker fuel emissions) are excluded from national totals and reported separately as a memo item. International bunkers add around one-third to reported EU transport emissions.
“Year-on-year increases in emissions from international maritime and aviation are showing signs of slowing with only 2.6 % and 0.9% increases in emissions between 2006 and 2007, compared with 5.3% and 6.4% increases from 2005 to 2006.
“This trend of contracting emissions growth looks set to continue in the short term for aviation. In the long term, however, continued expansion is expected because of the close link to economic development.
“The EU agreed in July 2008 that it will bring the aviation sector into the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) system from 2012 to help address the dramatic increase in emissions and hopes for a broader global agreement in the context of continuing climate change talks.
“The latest data on energy efficiency of new cars show that the rate of improvement has increased. In 2008 the average emissions of new cars were 154 g CO2/km. This is significantly above the target of 140 g CO2/km but on the other hand a strong improvement over 2007 (159 g CO2/km). The lack of progress seen in the previous years motivated the EU to introduce Directive 2009/443/EC, which regulates the average emissions of new cars sold in the EU from 2010 to 2020.
“The requirements will gradually be tightened and reach 95 g CO2/km by 2020. Exceedances will result in fines based on the level of exceedance and the number of cars sold.
“A further follow up to this regulation is proposed in the form of a parallel regulation for light commercial vehicles (vans) starting with a target of 175 g CO2/kmin 2014 gradually tightening to 135 g CO2/km by 2020. Additionally, work is starting on establishing harmonised testing methods that can be applied to a similar regulation for heavy duty vehicles. The timeline for the latter regulation is less certain, however.
“The emissions reductions required by Directive 2009/443/EC are significantly faster than the growth in traffic seen over recent decades. If, therefore, these technology improvements continue then emissions would gradually be reduced.
“Since full fleet penetrations of new technologies take 15–20 years, however, and that further improvements to technology will be increasingly expensive, overall improvements will be less dramatic. It should not be assumed, therefore, that there will be no need for further developments towards near-zero emission vehicles, such as electric or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles supplied by renewable energy sources.”
The report's other trends and findings, included:
* Freight transport tends to grow slightly faster than the economy, with road and air freight recording the largest increases in the EU-27 (43% and 35%, respectively, between 1997 and 2007).
* The share of rail and inland waterways in the total freight volumes declined during that period.
* The current economic slowdown has reduced transport volumes but transport is expected to resume its growth as soon as the economy starts to grow again.
* Passenger transport continued to grow but at a slower rate than the economy. Air travel within the EU remained the fastest growth area, increasing 48% between 1997 and 2007. Car journeys remained the dominant mode of transport, accounting for 72% of all passenger kilometres in the EU-27.
* In EEA countries, greenhouse gas emissions from transport (excluding international aviation and maritime transport) grew by 28% between 1990 and 2007, and now account for around 19% of total emissions.
* Despite recent reductions in air pollutant emissions, road transport was the largest emitter of nitrogen oxides and the second largest contributor of pollutants forming particulate matter in 2007.
* Among 32 EEA countries, only Germany and Sweden are on track to meet their 2010 indicative targets for biofuels use.
* Road traffic remains by far the largest source of exposure to transport noise. The number of people exposed to damaging noise levels, especially at night, is expected to increase unless effective noise policies are developed and implemented in full.
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