The UK Government has released details of a groundbreaking study that identifies the opportunities and threats the country faces from the effects of climate change.
The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) highlights the top 100 challenges to the UK and its economy of a changing climate and provides the most compelling evidence yet of the need to increase the nation's resilience.
The research confirms the UK as a world-leader in understanding climate risk to ensure it can make robust plans to deal with these threats.
The threats outlined by today's report, which took three years to create, include:
* Residential properties at significant risk of flooding
* Increased soil erosion due to heavy rain
* Mortality due to summer pollution
* Energy demand for cooling
* Potential decline of summer water quality
* Energy transmission efficiency capacity losses due to heat.
However, the report does highlight the potential advantages of a warmer climate, which include less winter deaths, reduction in energy demand for heating and the opening of Arctic shipping routes dues to ice melt.
As well as the release of the report, the UK Government has also today announced a National Adaptation Programme that will prepare the country for the effects of climate change, including the risks set out in the CCRA.
Speaking at the launch of the CCRA, Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman said: “This world class research provides the most comprehensive case yet on why we need to take action to adapt the UK and our economy to the impacts of climate change. It shows what life could be like if we stopped our preparations now, and the consequences such a decision would mean for our economic stability.
“The Climate Change Risk Assessment will be vital in helping us to understand what we need to do to stop these threats becoming a reality. In doing so there is also great potential for growth through UK firms developing innovative products and services tailored to meet the global climate challenges.”
Professor Sir Bob Watson, Chief Scientific Adviser at Defra, said: “The CCRA is ground-breaking research which puts the UK at the forefront of understanding what the projected changes to our climate will really mean for us.
“For the first time it means we can compare a wide range of risks based on their financial, social and environmental implications. This will be invaluable for Government in prioritising the areas for future policies and investment, and it will help businesses assess what they need to do to ensure they are resilient to the changing climate.”
Lord John Krebs, Chair of the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, said: “Without an effective plan to prepare for the risks from climate change the country may sleepwalk into disaster. This report represents an important first step in the process and demonstrates why the UK needs to take action to adapt now. The work of my Committee has found that by taking steps to manage these risks, the UK can reduce the costs of climate change in the future.
“The Government’s forthcoming adaptation programme should tackle barriers to adaptation so that local communities, businesses and households can take action to prepare.”
Among the key risks the CCRA identifies, in the unlikely event the UK took no further action, are:
• Hotter summers present significant health risks. The CCRA projects that without measures to reduce the risk, there could be between 580-5,900 additional premature deaths per year by the 2050s. The Department for Health launched a Heatwave Plan in 2004 and update it annually to provide advice and support for people vulnerable to hotter weather.
• Increasing pressure on the UK’s water resources. The CCRA projects that without action to improve water resources, there could be major supply shortages by the 2050s in parts of the north, south and east of England with the greatest challenge in the Thames River basin.
• The risks of flooding are projected to increase significantly across the UK. New analysis for England and Wales show that if no further plans were made to adapt to changing flood risks, by the 2080s due the effects of climate change and population growth annual damages to buildings and property could reach between £2.1billion – £12billion, compared to current costs of £1.2billion.
• The number of days in an average year when temperatures rise above 26 degrees C is projected to rise from 18 days to between 27-121 days in London by the 2080s. This could mean greater demand for energy to cool buildings and more heat related illnesses.
• Increases in drought and some pest and diseases could reduce timber yields and quality. Projected drought conditions could mean a drop in timber yields of between 10% and 25% by the 2080s in the south east, driving up timber costs. Pests and diseases, which thrive in warmer conditions, may also pose an increasing threat, such as red band needle blight – which causes loss of foliage and can lead to tree death. Defra has published a Tree and Plant Health Action Plan and committed £7million to further research into plant diseases.
The CCRA also highlights opportunities for the UK that climate change could present, including:
• Opening of Arctic shipping routes. The melting of Arctic sea ice could lead to the opening up of new container shipping routes and improved trade links with Asia and the Pacific.
• Milder winters may result in a major reduction in cold-related deaths and illnesses. Currently, cold weather results in between 26,000 and 57,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. By the 2050s, a reduction in these figures of between 3,900 and 24,000 is projected to occur due to increasing average winter temperatures. This would particularly benefit vulnerable groups, including those with existing health problems.
• Opportunities to improve sustainable food production. Sugar beet yields are projected to increase by 20-70% and wheat yields by 40-140% by the 2050s due to longer growing seasons if water and nutrients remain available. A warmer climate presents opportunities to grow new crops such as soya, sunflowers, peaches, apricots and grapes, while new markets may open up overseas for British grown produce.
The CCRA evidence will be used to develop a National Adaptation Programme (NAP) that will set out timescales for the actions Government will take to meet the challenges of climate change.
The development of the NAP starts today and Caroline Spelman has called on the public to give their views on what the priorities areas for action should be. These views will help shape the final NAP, which will be published in 2013.
Mrs Spelman continued: “Climate change is a global phenomenon, but its impacts will be felt at a local level and affect people differently depending on where they live. That is why I want people to give us their views to help develop a National Adaption Programme that puts us in the best shape possible to meet climate change head on.”
The report also listed how the UK has so far been hit by the effects of climate change. The events include:
* In 2003, around 2000 excess deaths were recorded in England and Wales during the August heatwave. In London, the Urban Heat Island effect meant that night-time temperatures were as much as 9°C higher than in the surrounding countryside.
* In 2007, summer floods affected England, Wales and Northern Ireland, costing the economy more than £3 billion in England alone. In 2009, the Cumbria floods resulted in £100s of millions of damage, including the loss of 20 road bridges and long-term disruption for local communities.
* In 2009 and 2010, prolonged cold caused wide-ranging problems for UK transport and water infrastructure. For example, in December 2009, thousands of households in Northern Ireland experienced difficulties with water supplies; in December 2010, heavy snow across Scotland’s Central Belt resulted in hundreds of motorists being stranded overnight.
* In 2011, parts of the UK experienced a much drier than average spring, resulting in insufficient rainfall for some crops. Over Easter, the higher temperatures, static weather pattern and increased sunshine contributed to a pollution warning across England and Wales unusually early in the
year. In Berkshire, forest fires led to the closure of businesses and schools and evacuation of homes.
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